Wednesday, April 14, 2010

How much would you bid for a $10 bill?




I have taught many negotiation classes over the years, and I continue to do so at my hospital. The attendees include students, doctors, and administrative people. It is a very interactive session, with several simulation exercises used to demonstrate some of the principles of the field.

I often present one game that is an auction. I offer to sell a $10 bill to the highest bidder. Here are the rules: Bids start at $1 and must go up in $1 increments. The winning bidder wins the $10 bill and pays me the amount of his/her bid. The second place bidder wins nothing but must also pay me the amount of his/her bid.

What do you think happens? Well, usually there are two bidders who have trouble stopping. The person in second place offers a new bid in the hope of being the higher bidder and getting the $10. Then, the other person, not wanting to pay money for no return, feels the same way. I think the highest price I have received over the years for the $10 was $24 (and $23), which netted me $37.

This game is illustrative of what happens during wars and lawsuits and other fruitless types of negotiations, where the parties lose track of their underlying interests and the value of the matter in question.

We only reached $14 (and $13) this week. Later, the "winner," one of our fine neurologists (and one of my soccer buddies), sent me this note:

Paul,

As a scientist, after the class yesterday, I immediately searched for explanations of what happened during the “Ten Dollar Auction” game. I had a particular interest in my behavior and the others’ reactions. I made significant revelations. The paradox of irrational decisions on rational choices worked perfectly.


I have found the following very interesting aspects and facts:

  1. In the overwhelming majority of games, both the highest and second highest bidders will pay in excess of the amount the group is auctioning.
  1. There are four major components of the players’ behavior:
  • prospect of winning for a small upfront investment
  • trapped near the $10 level by not wanting to lose the bid
  • remaining consistent with the earlier commitment to avoid being judged foolish to enter the bidding war
  • ego, competition, rivalry
  1. Yesterday I think the limbic emotional part of my brain overruled my higher level cortical thinking driven by my academic high ego and soccer player-coach competitiveness.

The general lesson I learned from this game and from my search is the following:

  1. Ego and competitiveness in a competitive and adversarial environment leads to irrational escalation of commitment, which beyond the “Ten Dollar Auction Game” lessons has very important implications for organizational behavior.
  1. According to Gregory P. Smith, international business consultant, this auction game is very effective for demonstrating the benefits of internal competition and the possible downsides of an adversarial environment.
  1. While internal competition can generate enthusiasm and energy, cooperation can prevent the irrational escalation of commitments (bidding war). Maybe this is why high ego academic professors can not and should not run academic medical centers?

It was fun to learn so much.

Thank you.

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

VAT on the horizon

Several months ago, a friend met with a high government official and expressed concern that the new health care bill would be more expensive than people were saying. "Oh yes," said the official, "In several years, the United States will pass a value-added tax to cover the cost."

After the bill passed, Charles Krauthammer wrote this column in the National Review saying the same thing:

American liberals have long complained that ours is the only advanced industrial country without universal health care. Well, now we shall have it. And as we approach European levels of entitlements, we will need European levels of taxation.

I believe that a VAT is a move in the right direction. (I distinguish for the moment between amounts of taxation and the form of taxation.) Current tax policy in the United States discourages saving and investment and rewards consumption. Think of the double taxation on what you earn as salary and then what you earn as interest on your savings; think of income taxes on corporate profits and then again on the dividends you collect. A VAT avoids those problems.

The problem with a VAT is that it is regressive in nature, affecting lower income people more than wealthier people because lower income people spend a bigger percentage of their income on consumables. But you can adjust for that with income-based rebates or exemptions.

But, there is the danger that this tax will be able to be increased with little public scrutiny. It will not necessarily be visible because it is added at each stage of production, and so Congress could just jack it up whenever it wants. Also, you don't hear talk of reducing other taxes as this new one is introduced. That is why some people are nervous, like the gentleman quoted here:

Jon Hurst, president of the Retailers Association of Massachusetts, said he fears a value-added tax would simply be used to fund new programs....

The costs of health care reform were intentionally designed not show up in a big way until well into the next Presidential term. It is thus likely that it will be a few years before the debate begins in earnest, but it is on the horizon.

Dr. Aroesty goes the distance


We had our annual service awards reception last night for people who have worked here for a long time. The "winner" was cardiologist Julian Aroesty. Michael Keating wrote the following story:


Of the many highlights Julian Aroesty, MD, Cardiology, has had during his stellar 45-year career at BIDMC, there is one that overshadows all others – “Getting a job here in the first place!”


Aroesty’s eyes light up with a bright smile as he recalls the day he came to Boston to interview for a Senior Resident position. He met with Hermann Blumgart, MD, George Kurland, MD, and A. Stone Freedberg, MD, who told him there were three things they expected of every physician who worked at Beth Israel Hospital.


“First, they said that everyone has to be a good physician and take care of patients; even those who worked in the labs had to rotate on the medical service for two months so they’d never forget this job is about taking care of patients,” he said. “Second, they said you have to love to teach because our job is to teach the next generation. Third, they said we all have to advance medicine and basic science. Well, after the interview I said to myself, ‘This is the place for me.’”


But it wasn’t as easy a choice as he makes it sound. Aroesty is a first generation American who comes from a small community of Spanish-speaking Jews in Rochester, NY. The community traces its lineage back to those who were expelled from Spain in 1492 and went to Turkey where they continued to speak Spanish for 500 years despite being in a non-Hispanic country.


“I thought about staying in Rochester and being the first physician to the community, but the offer to come here was so good I decided to take it,” he said. “My mentors were men like Drs. Blumgart, Kurland, Freedberg and Paul Zoll – millions of patients the world over have been saved by Zoll’s research (heart monitors, pacemakers and defibrillators). Working with people who love to teach is such a huge thrill.”


New Beginnings

The cardiac catheterization lab had only recently opened when Aroesty accepted an attending position. “My job was to make it busy, make it high quality,” he said. “I went out and spoke at all the neighboring hospitals. I was half-time person, half-time in the lab and half-time in my private practice. My wife said this was actually double-time. She was right, of course, because most days I would leave at 7 in the morning at get home around 9 at night. But it’s been a wonderful, thrilling career.”


Aroesty met his wife, Elaine, a nurse practitioner, when she was a nurse at BI. “She’s gorgeous and wonderful,” he said with a smile. “I met her, wooed her and married her. Everyone was chasing her, but I caught her – I still don’t know how, but I did.”


Now, at age 78 and-a-half, Aroesty says he’s starting to slow down so he can spend more time with his grandchildren. “My wife calls this retirement on training wheels,” he joked. In fact, that’s why he wasn’t able to attend this year’s Service Awards event – he was visiting his grandchildren in San Francisco.


Among the other highlights Aroesty recalled was the day in the mid’80s when Mike Lipman, then Director of Admissions, called him into his office and said, “I want you to know you’re the number one admitter to the hospital. What’s more is that you admit 50 percent more patients than the number two admitter.’ I did that by establishing relationships with doctors in the community who knew I never turned off my beeper and I never had an unlisted phone number – and my patients knew that too. I never took off Wednesdays, never joined a country club. I just devoted myself to the job -- and I loved it!”


He also loved the people he worked with. “This is a wonderful hospital because of all the people who work here,” he said “The nurses are truly dedicated and absolutely wonderful, and so are all the people who work on the floors. They’re the reason this is such a special place.”


Changes in the Lab

There have been many changes in the lab over the years, but one of the most important is in imaging. “The big difference is that going from film to digital gives us a much lower radiation exposure - to the patent and to us,” he said. “My first experience with cardiac catheratization, in the early-‘60s, I actually had to look into the X-ray tube to guide what we were doing. It wasn’t on a separate monitor. So the X-ray beam was coming up through a florescent screen into my eyes. I was reasonably protected, but this is what we had to do at the beginning.”


Over his career, Aroesty has performed more than 20,000 cardiac catheterizations and more than 2,000 angioplasties. “I was always very cautious and not afraid to send a patient to surgery if I felt it posed a better outcome,” he said. “I always said to myself, ‘If this was my father, or if this were me, what would I want?’”


That’s a guiding principle he strives to teach his students.


“Sometimes you’ll see something that we could easily fix with a stent, say a proximal LAD lesion in a young guy,” he said. “And the fellow standing next to me says, ‘Let’s go for it.’ I say, ‘No, we’re going to send this guy to surgery for a LIMA.’ He says, ‘Why, we can fix it.’ I say, ‘I know we can fix it. The risks of both procedures are about the same, but he’s 50 years old. The LIMA lasts forever. The stent doesn’t. If this were you, which one would you want?’ He says, ‘Well, I guess I’d take the LIMA.’”


It’s these lessons (being thoughtful about what modality is best for each patient) that returning students say they appreciate most from their time as fellows.


“When they come to talk to me the thing that really pleases me is that they tell me the most important thing I taught them was judgment,” he said. “They say, ‘You taught me to really think about what I was doing rather than just going forward with the lesion-fix. Knowing that there are many ways to fix a lesion and that we have to choose the best one.’”


Aroesty also jokes that his lessons don’t always have their intended effect. “I once heard that a fellow who was on duty when I came in at 3 a.m. to help a patient decided to switch from cardiology to anesthesiology,” he said. “This fellow said that if this is what Aroesty is doing at 3 a.m. when he’s in his 60s, then I want to be doing something else. I laughed when I heard that, but honestly, it’s energizing to get up in the middle of the night and save a life. How many people have a job where you can do that?”

Monday, April 12, 2010

Imani Winds with Stefon Harris -- Special price


There is a very special performance occurring at Boston's Jordan Hall this Friday night, April 16.

Imani Winds with Stefon Harris
Friday, April 16, 8pm
NEC's Jordan Hall


The Grammy-nominated wind quintet Imani Winds' innovative programming and ground-breaking collaborations have been enriching and diversifying traditional wind quintet repertoire since the group was founded. For this performance, Imani Winds teams up with the enormously gifted jazz vibraphonist and composer Stefon Harris. The program will feature the Boston premiere of a new work written by Harris, and co-commissioned by the Celebrity Series of Boston.

Here's the deal. There are still some tickets left for this show. Because I am on the Board of the Celebrity Series, I have been authorized to make a special offer to my readers here. If you contact the Celebrity Series and tell them that you heard about this performance on my blog, they will give you a 50% discount off the ticket prices -- making them $20, $22 & $25. You can do it by phone at 617.482.6661 (Monday-Friday from 10am-4pm) and save the $5 per ticket fee, or you can order on-line here and use the following code, PLIMAN (in all caps). The offer ends Friday 4/16 at noon.

I look forward to seeing you there.

Sunday, April 11, 2010

Will a lava lamp work on Jupiter?

Let's start out the new week on a lighter note. I came in on the end of an email conversation among several of my MIT classmates. (We have exchanges like this. It might come from taking physics and calculus together. It might be indicative of some other problem. I'm not sure.)

Dave to Bill and Doug:

OMG. Look at this:

Lava Lamp Centrifuge

Would a Lava Lamp work in a high-gravity environment such as Jupiter? Would the wax still rise to the surface? Would the blobs be smaller and faster? With broad disagreement on the answers, I built a large centrifuge to find out.

http://neil.fraser.name/hardware/centrifuge/

Aside from being highly dangerous (the builder describes several scenarios), he did get the answer.

Bill to Dave and Doug:


Well, inquiring minds want to know…

Doug to Bill and Dave:


This falls under the heading of what I call "rabid research", wherein some nut job decides to answer a seemingly unimportant question with a proper scientific experiment. Correctly done, it should involve serious overkill & inventiveness.

Nicely done!

---

Mr. Fraser's video is below. If you can't see it, click here:

As he notes:

The centrifuge is a genuinely terrifying device. The lights dim when it is switched on. A strong wind is produced as the centrifuge induces a cyclone in the room. The smell of boiling insulation emanates from the overloaded 25 amp cables. If not perfectly adjusted and lubricated, it will shred the teeth off solid brass gears in under a second. Runs were conducted from the relative safety of the next room while peeking through a crack in the door.


Huh?


One of the treasures of the Boston area park system is the Blue Hills Reservation. It is managed by the state's Department of Conservation and Recreation, and the agency does a marvelous job with its upkeep and maintenance.

But what is this sign about? The context is seen in the photo to the right: A tree next to the path. Maybe someone from the agency can reply with a comment.

In the meantime, for fun, you can offer your own thoughts.

Friday, April 9, 2010

Hospitable hospitalists


I was invited to give the keynote address at the national meeting of the Society of Hospital Medicine in Washington, DC. SHM is committed to enhancing the practice of hospital medicine by promoting education, research and advocacy and has more than 10,000 hospitalist members. They asked me to speak on "The hospitalist's role in the hospital of the future." (Here's a story they wrote afterward.)

Who should I run into but our own Chief of Medicine, Mark Zeidel, who had been invited to be the featured visiting professor for the conference, providing mentoring and insight to those in attendance. You see Mark here with Scott Flanders, Director of the Hospitalist Program at the University of Michigan Health System and President of the SHM.

Hospitalists are now the largest specialty group in medicine in the country, with approximately 28,000 in the profession overall. As noted by panelist Ronald Greeno (on the right), they have a key role to play in improving quality and reducing waste in the hospital environment. He was joined in those sentiments by Patrick Conway and Leslie Norwalk, who further expanded on the implications of the recently passed health care reform act.

About 2,500 people attended this session, including strong representation from BIDMC and several alumni of our program who currently work at other hospitals in the country. Joe Li, one of the first hospitalists in Boston, was voted to be President-elect of the Society and will serve as President next year. Joe has had leadership roles regionally and has also served as the Treasurer of SHM. Congratulations for this well deserved honor!